Methodology

How the Trade Analyzer Works

The only fantasy football trade calculator that shows its work. No AI, no opinion, no black box. Just deterministic math that gives the same answer every time you ask the same question.

The Promise

Every other trade analyzer is one of two things: opinion-based (relies on expert rankings or crowdsourced votes) or black-box (won't tell you how it works). Both have the same flaw: you can't verify why it told you what it told you.

We did the opposite. We built a deterministic 6-factor model anchored to actual 2024 fantasy data. We publish the formulas, weights, and reasoning. You can replicate every calculation by hand. Same inputs always produce the same output.

The Core Question

Most trade calculators ask the wrong question: “Is Player A worth more than Player B?”That's a ranking problem, not a trade problem.

The right question is: “Did my team get better or worse?”

That requires knowing your full roster, your league's scoring, your starting lineup, your team's situation (winning or rebuilding), and how the trade fits all of it together. We do all of that math automatically.

Team Mode Changes Everything

A 7-1 contender and a 1-7 rebuilder should evaluate the same trade differently. That's obvious, but no other tool actually does it. We do.

Contending

Win now

Current-year value × 100%, future picks × 35%. You should be buying stars and dumping picks.

Borderline

Stay flexible

Current-year value × 100%, future picks × 75%. Both this year and next matter.

Rebuilding

Build for next year

Current-year value × 25%, future picks × 140%. Every starter you're not playing for a championship is a sell candidate.

The 6 Factors

The composite trade score is a weighted sum of 6 deterministic factors. The weights change based on team mode: contenders care about lineup, rebuilders care about future value.

VORP Differential

Contending 25%Borderline 30%Rebuild 40%

Value Over Replacement Player. We calculate each player's points above what you could pick up off the waiver wire at their position. Replacement levels are anchored to actual 2024 PPR data, not synthetic curves.

VORP(player) = projectedPoints(player) - replacementLevel(position)

Marginal Lineup Impact

Contending 50%Borderline 42%Rebuild 30%

The most important factor: does your starting lineup actually score more points after this trade? We re-optimize your full lineup before and after, including FLEX/Superflex slot reassignment.

delta = optimalLineup(rosterAfter).points - optimalLineup(rosterBefore).points

Keeper Equity (keeper leagues only)

Contending 8%Borderline 12%Rebuild 30%

How does this trade affect your top-K keeper values for next year? Trading away an excess keeper (one outside your top K) costs you nothing.

delta = sum(top K keeper values after) - sum(top K keeper values before)

Positional Scarcity

Contending 10%Borderline 11%Rebuild 13%

RBs are scarcer than WRs. Trading an RB1 hurts more than trading a WR1, even at the same projected points. Calibrated by league size and roster format.

scarcityMultiplier = base[position] × leagueSizeAdjustment × formatAdjustment

Depth Impact

Contending 8%Borderline 9%Rebuild 10%

How many startable players you have at each position. Trading away your only RB2 hurts more than trading one of four.

depth(position) = count(roster.players where projection > replacement)

Injury Status

Contending 4%Borderline 5%Rebuild 4%

Currently injured players get discounted in real-time. We don't factor in injury history (research shows it's not predictive).

discount: healthy=1.0 / questionable=0.9 / doubtful=0.7 / out=0.0 / IR=0.0

Schedule + Bye Weeks

Contending 3%Borderline 3%Rebuild 3%

Bye week conflicts get a small penalty. Future feature: opponent defense rankings for matchup-specific projections.

byeWeekPenalty = (overlapping byes) × replacement gap

Replacement Baselines: Anchored to Real Data

Most trade tools use synthetic point curves or made-up replacement levels. We anchor ours to actual 2024 PPR season totals for the top 30-45 players at each position.

For a 12-team standard PPR league, the replacement levels (the last starter at each position):

QB

294

pts (rank #12)

RB

130

pts (rank #31)

WR

195

pts (rank #28)

TE

140

pts (rank #13)

What We Don't Do

  • No AI/LLM analysis. Our analyzer doesn't hallucinate. Same inputs = same output, always.
  • No injury history. Past injuries are not predictive of future ones. We only factor in current status.
  • No expert ranking aggregation. Experts disagree. Crowdsourced rankings have herd bias. We trust the math.
  • No consolidation tax. The lineup math already captures roster spot value. Adding a separate “multi-player penalty” would double-count it.

vs Other Trade Calculators

FantasyPros Trade Analyzer

Method: Aggregates expert rankings from 100+ analysts

Weakness: Not deterministic: rankings shift with opinion. Doesn't know YOUR roster.

CBS Trade Value Chart

Method: Weekly expert-curated values

Weakness: Subjective. Updated manually. Doesn't adjust for league settings.

KeepTradeCut

Method: Crowdsourced ELO from millions of votes

Weakness: Reflects herd mentality and recency bias. No roster context.

ESPN Trade Rater

Method: Black-box algorithm, methodology not disclosed

Weakness: You can't verify the math. Doesn't show its work.

Our Approach

Method: Deterministic 6-factor mathematical model. Replacement baselines anchored to actual 2024 data. Mode-dependent factor weights. Lineup re-optimization on every evaluation.

Result: Same inputs always produce the same output. Every calculation can be verified by hand. The recommendation explains itself.

Worked Example: A “Bad Trade” That's Actually Smart

You're 2-7 in your keeper league. You're eliminated. Someone offers you a 2nd round pick next year for your CeeDee Lamb.

Every other tool says: DECLINE. Lamb is worth way more than a 2nd round pick.

Our analyzer says: ACCEPTABLE: make the trade.

Here's why:

  • • Your team is in rebuilding mode. Current-year lineup value gets discounted by 75% because you're not winning anything.
  • • The pick's future value gets amplified by 40% because future assets matter more for rebuilders.
  • • Your keeper equity loss is zeroif Lamb wasn't in your top 2 keepers anyway (the “excess keeper” case).
  • • The lineup math says you'd lose ~30 starter points/season : but at 25% effective weight, that's only -7.5 effective points.
  • • The pick's amplified value (~28 effective VORP) overcomes the lineup loss.

Result: Your team is roughly neutral on this trade. The contender is the one being irrational. Take the pick.

Try It Yourself

See the math in action. Build a trade and watch every factor calculate in real time.

Open the Trade Analyzer →